The Local Optimisation Trap
Most people optimise locally. Next cert. Next role. Next pay bump. Each move makes sense in isolation. None of them compose into a trajectory.
This is hill-climbing with no map. You reach a local maximum and stop. The system rewarded you just enough to keep you still.
The dangerous part: it feels like progress.
Capability Accumulation vs Trajectory Selection
Two different games, often confused.
Capability Accumulation
Skills, certs, experience
Necessary but insufficient
Makes you eligible
Does not make you chosen
Trajectory Selection
Market timing, leverage, positioning
Choosing where to be when the wave arrives
Knowing which rooms matter
Making the move before you "need" to
Capability gets you into the game. Trajectory determines which game you're playing.
Development Theatre
Most "career development" is theatre.
Annual reviews that measure compliance, not growth
Training courses that tick boxes, not build capability
Mentoring programmes that match by convenience, not signal
Development plans that describe the past, not shape the future
The system rewards the appearance of development because it's measurable. Real growth is harder to track and harder to claim credit for.
If your development plan could have been written by someone who doesn't know you, it's theatre.
The Global Variables
The things that actually shift trajectories:
Market timing โ being in the right capability space when demand spikes
Leverage โ having something others need and can't easily replace
Positioning โ being visible to the right people before you need them
Narrative โ the story others tell about you when you're not there
None of these appear on a CV. All of them determine what happens next.
The Reframe
Stop asking: "What should I learn next?"
Start asking: "Where is the system moving, and what position do I need to hold when it arrives?"
Skills decay. Positions compound.